GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1651 · narrative · 24H

Will "canine" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 12% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 1807 launches in the last hour referenced "canine" (16 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-11 15:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 15:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 14:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": -3.1926499577976775,
      "diversity": -0.4428571428571429
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12366889805974589
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "canine",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.0009652509652509653,
    "share60": 0.02350663716814159,
    "total15": 517,
    "total60": 1807,
    "momentum": 0.04106291165114695,
    "diversity": 0.38095238095238093,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 184,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960452777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998352199074074
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.12366889805974589
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 15:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.015
Log loss0.132
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00008748332349145944,
  "shareRatio": 0.09349161329533263,
  "totalAfter": 45723,
  "shareBefore": 0.0010416204955454103,
  "totalBefore": 45122,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 12% that "canine" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.10% → 0.01% (-92%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "canine" (24H). momentum contributed -3.19 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd04bc1852331f80766523b69fa5bdfad8d7193de4b2343a8805ed362fac32cea
Previous hash14af0043264c43a999756698f8d16bcebad28bf24f14fe1ac87d23f45fe493f0