Ledger / Prediction #166 · token · 6H

Will $BLOCKSPACE still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 23m ago. X link. No hot term.

Made2026-10-09 13:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 19:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 13:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07280096915005271
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "9rTv1qM5MQFNZXqGScFNEJFdzJSto92bs4d8nqdp1y9J",
    "name": "Blockspace",
    "symbol": "BLOCKSPACE",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 23,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3200.470028394509,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 643,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07280096915005271
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 19:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.005

Log loss0.076

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T13:15:39.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3084.715750747111,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3200.676896800498,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3200.470028394509,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6400.940056789018
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $BLOCKSPACE would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,085, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $BLOCKSPACE (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8339f5eb2a3a7743825d89c63590feb6b262d407c32fde7cea23d425431bc989

Previous hash2ac49ab4d026dd0296e27f23fd24c41af4be7a72996898b89f5efe4e842b1d91