Will "tech" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2011 launches in the last hour referenced "tech" (6 distinct creators, rank #220). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -1.125581317130248,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2500711076884257
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tech",
    "rank60": 220,
    "share15": 0.0010482180293501049,
    "share60": 0.0032306163021868788,
    "total15": 476,
    "total60": 2011,
    "momentum": 0.3244637961619094,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 228,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929666666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9929666666666667
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2500711076884257
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0014895729890764648,
  "shareRatio": 0.542737163580836,
  "totalAfter": 2014,
  "shareBefore": 0.002955665024630542,
  "totalBefore": 2030,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity