Will "claim" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 2011 launches in the last hour referenced "claim" (7 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 2.55×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": 0.9378882789835356,
      "diversity": -0.66
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4962219220739308
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "claim",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.04507337526205451,
    "share60": 0.0176441351888668,
    "total15": 476,
    "total60": 2011,
    "momentum": 2.5545811556972864,
    "diversity": 0.2,
    "launches15": 21,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 228,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929666666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997069444444444
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4962219220739308
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0026135249918327343,
  "shareRatio": 0.7020273881052096,
  "totalAfter": 45915,
  "shareBefore": 0.0037271793956166585,
  "totalBefore": 44806,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 120,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 167
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity