Will "governance" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1958 launches in the last hour referenced "governance" (5 distinct creators, rank #264). Last 15m momentum 1.09×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.09059102796113278,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5226322810137839
},
"features": {
"term": "governance",
"rank60": 264,
"share15": 0.0030737704918032786,
"share60": 0.002807554874936192,
"total15": 487,
"total60": 1958,
"momentum": 1.0948211624441133,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 265,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9979872222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9979872222222222
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5226322810137839
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0022603978300180833,
"shareRatio": 0.8892905558065973,
"totalAfter": 2212,
"shareBefore": 0.002541942043721403,
"totalBefore": 1967,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 5,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 5
}Predicted 52% that "governance" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.25% → 0.23% (-11%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "governance" (1H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
f54d1da31e30ca4132549433b381ea6239e8db03810ffaadff409b882396fdf57d759738d9ca112fe158c641d8a45d1535ce92477b7309fa10e8e13403039b46