GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1676 · narrative · 1H

Will "governance" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1958 launches in the last hour referenced "governance" (5 distinct creators, rank #264). Last 15m momentum 1.09×.

Made2026-10-11 16:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 15:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.09059102796113278,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5226322810137839
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "governance",
    "rank60": 264,
    "share15": 0.0030737704918032786,
    "share60": 0.002807554874936192,
    "total15": 487,
    "total60": 1958,
    "momentum": 1.0948211624441133,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 265,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979872222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9979872222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5226322810137839
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 17:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.273
Log loss0.739
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0022603978300180833,
  "shareRatio": 0.8892905558065973,
  "totalAfter": 2212,
  "shareBefore": 0.002541942043721403,
  "totalBefore": 1967,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "governance" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.25% → 0.23% (-11%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "governance" (1H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf54d1da31e30ca4132549433b381ea6239e8db03810ffaadff409b882396fdf5
Previous hash7d759738d9ca112fe158c641d8a45d1535ce92477b7309fa10e8e13403039b46