Ledger / Prediction #1684 · narrative · 24H
Will "wif" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 46% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
13 of 1958 launches in the last hour referenced "wif" (11 distinct creators, rank #80). Last 15m momentum 1.04×.
Made2026-10-11 16:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 15:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.14332671675411546,
"momentum": 0.039947295142377916,
"diversity": 0.11538461538461536
},
"rawProbability": 0.46240342688523156
},
"features": {
"term": "wif",
"rank60": 80,
"share15": 0.007172131147540984,
"share60": 0.006891271056661562,
"total15": 487,
"total60": 1958,
"momentum": 1.0407559198542806,
"diversity": 0.8461538461538461,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 13,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 11
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 265,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9979872222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999161342592593
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.46240342688523156
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.289
Log loss0.771
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.005040387722132471,
"shareRatio": 1.0379847598279006,
"totalAfter": 46425,
"shareBefore": 0.00485512920908379,
"totalBefore": 44695,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 234,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 217
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 46% that "wif" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.49% → 0.50% (+4%). PARTIAL.
— "wif" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
16c914e9458d750cc68907ec415bdbf76be1cb3601466b4a3772cb504648e593Previous hash
a637f72c95bc0cfeece09ef16e92ce268a8d968dcde54c663b593d99042cca9a