Ledger / Prediction #1691 · narrative · 1H
Will "pepe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
48 of 2001 launches in the last hour referenced "pepe" (30 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.46×.
Made2026-10-11 16:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 17:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 16:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3392644647710686,
"momentum": 0.3800035256732743,
"diversity": -0.15
},
"rawProbability": 0.5669131888684263
},
"features": {
"term": "pepe",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.0354251012145749,
"share60": 0.024225774225774224,
"total15": 493,
"total60": 2001,
"momentum": 1.4622897449810093,
"diversity": 0.625,
"launches15": 17,
"launches60": 48,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 30
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 295,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9954863888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954863888888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5669131888684263
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 17:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.321
Log loss0.837
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.010830324909747292,
"shareRatio": 0.44985260817466505,
"totalAfter": 2216,
"shareBefore": 0.02432969215491559,
"totalBefore": 2014,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 24,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 49
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 57% that "pepe" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.43% → 1.08% (-55%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "pepe" (1H). momentum contributed +0.38 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
54f3066d1f26783c3dbd13c55cac6a0fec9446087db8c4e3e390ec5a5907d9afPrevious hash
feaf2ba083d999fde44fd751e722cb274e214a22aab4d6701b994bb3cc7e0157