Ledger / Prediction #1693 · narrative · 6H

Will "wallet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 2001 launches in the last hour referenced "wallet" (22 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.32×.

Made2026-10-11 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 16:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": 0.27802590294157764,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.47825548970801013
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wallet",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.029352226720647773,
    "share60": 0.022227772227772228,
    "total15": 493,
    "total60": 2001,
    "momentum": 1.3205204021289179,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 295,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954863888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992477314814815
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.47825548970801013
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 22:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.229

Log loss0.651

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006873100853711475,
  "shareRatio": 0.8997663740313459,
  "totalAfter": 13822,
  "shareBefore": 0.007628990162617948,
  "totalBefore": 9962,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 95,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 76
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 48% that "wallet" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.76% → 0.69% (-10%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "wallet" (6H). diversity contributed -0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd98f90165b7280c5afc2ba4637fc9d7ba079c49c1b1b6794b6ffb4b217f99ff6

Previous hash19b91afe0e78a495f917abd869d1a9f405319bd68b2eed19b9b1bb45ff7726f9