Will "claudeai" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

16 of 2001 launches in the last hour referenced "claudeai" (10 distinct creators, rank #54). Last 15m momentum 0.12×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.17447262147085213,
      "momentum": -2.097141118779237,
      "diversity": -0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14793775784663749
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "claudeai",
    "rank60": 54,
    "share15": 0.0010121457489878543,
    "share60": 0.008241758241758242,
    "total15": 493,
    "total60": 2001,
    "momentum": 0.12280701754385964,
    "diversity": 0.625,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 16,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 295,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954863888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992477314814815
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14793775784663749
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0001446968600781363,
  "shareRatio": 0.10920534287386635,
  "totalAfter": 13822,
  "shareBefore": 0.0016061031921300944,
  "totalBefore": 9962,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 16
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity