Will "bought" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
31 of 2001 launches in the last hour referenced "bought" (18 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 1.74×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27368239380765685,
"momentum": 0.5520685823000397,
"diversity": -0.20322580645161284
},
"rawProbability": 0.5028156164446427
},
"features": {
"term": "bought",
"rank60": 14,
"share15": 0.027327935222672066,
"share60": 0.015734265734265736,
"total15": 493,
"total60": 2001,
"momentum": 1.7368421052631577,
"diversity": 0.5806451612903226,
"launches15": 13,
"launches60": 31,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 18
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 295,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9954863888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998119328703704
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5028156164446427
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.002398595108579261,
"shareRatio": 1.1861770192012464,
"totalAfter": 46694,
"shareBefore": 0.0020199299757608404,
"totalBefore": 44556,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 112,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 90
}Predicted 50% that "bought" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.24% (+19%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "bought" (24H). momentum contributed +0.55 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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