Ledger / Prediction #1704 · token · 6H

Will $KOVU still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 12m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "dog".

Made2026-10-11 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 16:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12516099799833535
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "Ao4ksiczn4EYKooc9e32xaaNrYTtD9FoWUNZgg2Lpump",
    "name": "The Council Dog",
    "symbol": "KOVU",
    "hotTerms": [
      "dog"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 12,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 11875.146815372213,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 716,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.12516099799833535
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 22:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.016

Log loss0.134

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T22:30:02.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3405.2487066650738,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 20860.30188583764,
  "tradedInFinal15m": true,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 11875.146815372213,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 23750.293630744425
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that $KOVU would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,405, still trading). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $KOVU (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash62cc74e7149c6d53da4ae0b61ac99c9b95de666b177458b8041e1f7cb40653ee

Previous hash2fbc0075429f6fb6eba877c4d47d344f2673c6e75884d04a8a059cc74a6e442e