Ledger / Prediction #171 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 26% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 2061 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (11 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.62×.

Made2026-10-09 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 14:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": -0.48019641373083444,
      "diversity": -0.636
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.25524933176376835
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.015151515151515152,
    "share60": 0.02449078564500485,
    "total15": 560,
    "total60": 2061,
    "momentum": 0.6186618661866187,
    "diversity": 0.22,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 359,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996569444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996569444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.25524933176376835
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 15:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.065

Log loss0.295

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01312910284463895,
  "shareRatio": 0.5461006730594319,
  "totalAfter": 2285,
  "shareBefore": 0.02420135527589545,
  "totalBefore": 2066,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 30,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 26% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.42% → 1.31% (-46%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). diversity contributed -0.64 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash59bbbcd56875228ce3a91d9f61fe211cf8339d202a8b89d42a69c3a27f7b5436

Previous hash9765e69ff17da76470d7cdacce95c257670bab1df4e0fa367f04b0f67153aa26