GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1710 · narrative · 6H

Will "pixl" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 75% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

51 of 2189 launches in the last hour referenced "pixl" (51 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 3.82×.

Made2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 16:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34835815804353376,
      "momentum": 1.3405465015284792,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7488020260288144
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pixl",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0898576512455516,
    "share60": 0.023515981735159817,
    "total15": 561,
    "total60": 2189,
    "momentum": 3.821131188888505,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 50,
    "launches60": 51,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 51
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 272,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924144444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987357407407408
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7488020260288144
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 23:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.561
Log loss1.382
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.0074048733193890146,
  "totalAfter": 13678,
  "shareBefore": 0.0048888036809815955,
  "totalBefore": 10432,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 75% that "pixl" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.49% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "pixl" (6H). momentum contributed +1.34 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfe0289267f39ff21b25993c13ff98f831c07de873244b7da97f3a6d6440400c3
Previous hashacde228e47e01e7eb758647cd4fcf58a10e259cb5dfd23e60da763e99df41856