Ledger / Prediction #1711 · narrative · 6H

Will "trencher" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 2189 launches in the last hour referenced "trencher" (22 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 1.27×.

Made2026-10-11 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": 0.23881443317118964,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4714109753972061
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "trencher",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.025800711743772242,
    "share60": 0.020319634703196348,
    "total15": 561,
    "total60": 2189,
    "momentum": 1.269742892558679,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 272,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924144444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987357407407408
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4714109753972061
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.222

Log loss0.638

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016084222839596433,
  "shareRatio": 0.22142959893785857,
  "totalAfter": 13678,
  "shareBefore": 0.007381134969325153,
  "totalBefore": 10432,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 22,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 77
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "trencher" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.74% → 0.16% (-78%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "trencher" (6H). diversity contributed -0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5c7ac7f03243dea8584fe13f1a5f6845e6e02af0bbde3c06b55b56be9707f57d

Previous hashfe0289267f39ff21b25993c13ff98f831c07de873244b7da97f3a6d6440400c3