Will "galaxy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 2189 launches in the last hour referenced "galaxy" (27 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.70×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": -0.3506354337775325,
      "diversity": -0.10975609756097557
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.40796467737651443
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "galaxy",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.013345195729537367,
    "share60": 0.018949771689497717,
    "total15": 561,
    "total60": 2189,
    "momentum": 0.7042404493418514,
    "diversity": 0.6585365853658537,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 272,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924144444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996839351851852
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.40796467737651443
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008896420249947045,
  "shareRatio": 0.6421766113829405,
  "totalAfter": 47210,
  "shareBefore": 0.00139063341108918,
  "totalBefore": 44584,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 42,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 62
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity