Ledger / Prediction #1719 · token · 1H
Will $DDS still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 10m ago. X link. No hot term. Creator launched 16 tokens in the last hour.
Made2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 18:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 16:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0,
"twitter": 0.4,
"website": 0,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": -0.8
},
"rawProbability": 0.03407773968429842
},
"features": {
"mint": "3fDdjieLmPkdkrHgR4XqdGpijpUp9kuxAMCYK5QLrs2p",
"name": "DogDeerShark",
"symbol": "DDS",
"hotTerms": [],
"ageMinutes": 10,
"hasTwitter": true,
"hasWebsite": false,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 0,
"marketCapAtObservation": 3592.4782164493404,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 16
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 752,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.03407773968429842
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 18:00 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.001
Log loss0.035
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"graduated": false,
"replyCount": 0,
"lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T16:55:09.000Z",
"marketCapUsd": 3137.232394767666,
"athMarketCapUsd": 5023.850093862738,
"tradedInFinal15m": false,
"launchMarketCapUsd": 3592.4782164493404,
"marketCapThresholdUsd": 7184.956432898681
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 3% that $DDS would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,137, no recent trades). CORRECT.
— serialCreator pointed the right way on $DDS (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
3b50c7e18c45d52c37f8b4c3ff78c23607a5c01ece055bec78032719c3a2bb25Previous hash
8a2495a90d02dc32fe315514069f4f96b1847ef44f09c7564c2595023f10a9c1