GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1721 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

79 of 2208 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (54 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.12×.

Made2026-10-11 17:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 17:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.41400149100493816,
      "momentum": 0.11108242436096946,
      "diversity": -0.079746835443038
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5362704477926612
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.04021739130434782,
    "share60": 0.03598913535536442,
    "total15": 459,
    "total60": 2208,
    "momentum": 1.1174870112113755,
    "diversity": 0.6835443037974683,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 79,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 54
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 265,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979922222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9979922222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5362704477926612
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.288
Log loss0.769
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.03372243839169909,
  "shareRatio": 0.9342779838627421,
  "totalAfter": 2313,
  "shareBefore": 0.036101083032490974,
  "totalBefore": 2216,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 78,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 80
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.61% → 3.37% (-7%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash29576855bd813fe0db1ea87348a46f86081317fba9b461c3d36a100bac5faa79
Previous hash5ec0007dd28448eac3168b3355ff42cb3ad97b1fadeb3b9dd5f0390b23bd02cd