Ledger / Prediction #1721 · narrative · 1H
Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
79 of 2208 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (54 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.12×.
Made2026-10-11 17:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 17:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.41400149100493816,
"momentum": 0.11108242436096946,
"diversity": -0.079746835443038
},
"rawProbability": 0.5362704477926612
},
"features": {
"term": "cat",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.04021739130434782,
"share60": 0.03598913535536442,
"total15": 459,
"total60": 2208,
"momentum": 1.1174870112113755,
"diversity": 0.6835443037974683,
"launches15": 18,
"launches60": 79,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 54
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 265,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9979922222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9979922222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5362704477926612
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.288
Log loss0.769
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03372243839169909,
"shareRatio": 0.9342779838627421,
"totalAfter": 2313,
"shareBefore": 0.036101083032490974,
"totalBefore": 2216,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 78,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 80
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.61% → 3.37% (-7%). PARTIAL.
— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
29576855bd813fe0db1ea87348a46f86081317fba9b461c3d36a100bac5faa79Previous hash
5ec0007dd28448eac3168b3355ff42cb3ad97b1fadeb3b9dd5f0390b23bd02cd