GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1737 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 2142 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (32 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.82×.

Made2026-10-11 18:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 19:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 17:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": 0.6005414846231459,
      "diversity": -0.006976744186046524
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.649383193356162
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.03700657894736842,
    "share60": 0.020298646756882876,
    "total15": 607,
    "total60": 2142,
    "momentum": 1.8231057168784026,
    "diversity": 0.7441860465116279,
    "launches15": 22,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 246,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949347222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949347222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.649383193356162
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 19:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.422
Log loss1.048
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.003861003861003861,
  "shareRatio": 0.20162753100293765,
  "totalAfter": 2331,
  "shareBefore": 0.019981412639405203,
  "totalBefore": 2152,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 43
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 65% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.00% → 0.39% (-81%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.60 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash22962a49ce2c655eea24f84ad1936f44f7a71d21abc2050fc3e6f4ad68dc272b
Previous hasha22242661eda523d0ad813c89622f5edc3991d4784ef5b73ea4fed3f5493149a