Will "onboarder" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 2142 launches in the last hour referenced "onboarder" (15 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": -3.134662041165029,
      "diversity": -0.44999999999999996
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "onboarder",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.0008223684210526315,
    "share60": 0.0188987400839944,
    "total15": 607,
    "total60": 2142,
    "momentum": 0.043514457439896036,
    "diversity": 0.375,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 246,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949347222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949347222222222
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.011398047561569575,
  "totalAfter": 2331,
  "shareBefore": 0.01858736059479554,
  "totalBefore": 2152,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 40
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity