Will "house" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

30 of 2142 launches in the last hour referenced "house" (8 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 2.14×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2687639203842082,
      "momentum": 0.7598311619783232,
      "diversity": -0.58
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48108341845950897
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "house",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.03042763157894737,
    "share60": 0.014232384507699487,
    "total15": 607,
    "total60": 2142,
    "momentum": 2.137915228645384,
    "diversity": 0.26666666666666666,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 30,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 246,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949347222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997889467592592
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48108341845950897
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00330157929047589,
  "shareRatio": 0.8470477815553188,
  "totalAfter": 47553,
  "shareBefore": 0.003898768809849521,
  "totalBefore": 43860,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 157,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 171
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity