Will "aster" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

27 of 2142 launches in the last hour referenced "aster" (23 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2529598430355343,
      "momentum": 0.19689290744137966,
      "diversity": 0.12222222222222223
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4965094282949738
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "aster",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.015625,
    "share60": 0.012832477834811012,
    "total15": 607,
    "total60": 2142,
    "momentum": 1.2176136363636365,
    "diversity": 0.8518518518518519,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 27,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 246,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949347222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997889467592592
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4965094282949738
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005047000189262507,
  "shareRatio": 0.6549957241592015,
  "totalAfter": 47553,
  "shareBefore": 0.0007751937984496124,
  "totalBefore": 43860,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 34
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity