Ledger / Prediction #1753 · narrative · 1H

Will "pepe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

90 of 2291 launches in the last hour referenced "pepe" (60 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

Made2026-10-11 18:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 19:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 18:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43355576368442467,
      "momentum": -0.42017059659982064,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.40453247567697304
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pepe",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.0259391771019678,
    "share60": 0.039485165794066315,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2291,
    "momentum": 0.6569347394222121,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 90,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 60
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 236,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918672222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918672222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.40453247567697304
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 19:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.164

Log loss0.518

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.024718126626192542,
  "shareRatio": 0.6372869503576671,
  "totalAfter": 2306,
  "shareBefore": 0.038910505836575876,
  "totalBefore": 2313,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 57,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 90
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "pepe" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.89% → 2.47% (-36%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pepe" (1H). momentum contributed -0.42 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdeb35ebde558805d12babe98e0147953cdcbff14d91cd8720a9a6b472d92eb26

Previous hashee431592bfbf507f5313a8859388c07763ce48cd2baf4d2c8196dedb744dfb23