Will "doge" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

81 of 2291 launches in the last hour referenced "doge" (53 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.53×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4177516863357507,
      "momentum": -0.6381971584038083,
      "diversity": -0.11481481481481479
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.34631874246007155
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "doge",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.018783542039355994,
    "share60": 0.03555846422338569,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2291,
    "momentum": 0.5282439061865514,
    "diversity": 0.654320987654321,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 81,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 53
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 236,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918672222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918672222222222
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.34631874246007155
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.013009540329575022,
  "shareRatio": 0.3753686433128303,
  "totalAfter": 2306,
  "shareBefore": 0.03501945525291829,
  "totalBefore": 2313,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 30,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 81
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity