Ledger / Prediction #1759 · narrative · 6H

Will "usepaid" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

65 of 2291 launches in the last hour referenced "usepaid" (25 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.72×.

Made2026-10-11 18:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 18:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3847424036192305,
      "momentum": -0.32867250259247094,
      "diversity": -0.4384615384615384
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.36177367649941483
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "usepaid",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.020572450805008944,
    "share60": 0.028577661431064574,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2291,
    "momentum": 0.7198787365661145,
    "diversity": 0.38461538461538464,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 65,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 236,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918672222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998644537037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.36177367649941483
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 00:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.131

Log loss0.449

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.008179802767372525,
  "shareRatio": 0.6449965691671853,
  "totalAfter": 13081,
  "shareBefore": 0.012698412698412698,
  "totalBefore": 11655,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 107,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 148
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 36% that "usepaid" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.27% → 0.82% (-36%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "usepaid" (6H). diversity contributed -0.44 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8918c48550a639cb380226eb6a42bafc32412bef7be4006ff149e67f5c2066d6

Previous hasha528ec4cb34b646814f8214d7d6c65d92528ae599ff3a7286d66e9098bba4b30