Will "main" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 26% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2291 launches in the last hour referenced "main" (8 distinct creators, rank #146). Last 15m momentum 0.24×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.422182739376685,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2618882139206937
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "main",
    "rank60": 146,
    "share15": 0.0008944543828264759,
    "share60": 0.0037085514834205935,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2291,
    "momentum": 0.24118699358097442,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 236,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918672222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998644537037037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2618882139206937
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0014524883418698877,
  "shareRatio": 0.6813493169779761,
  "totalAfter": 13081,
  "shareBefore": 0.002145002145002145,
  "totalBefore": 11655,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 19,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 25
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity