Ledger / Prediction #1761 · narrative · 24H
Will "justice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
83 of 2291 launches in the last hour referenced "justice" (48 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 2.23×.
Made2026-10-11 18:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 18:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.42141040430437465,
"momentum": 0.8038962987796261,
"diversity": -0.2060240963855422
},
"rawProbability": 0.5522192151845887
},
"features": {
"term": "justice",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.08139534883720931,
"share60": 0.03643106457242583,
"total15": 558,
"total60": 2291,
"momentum": 2.2342292159866317,
"diversity": 0.5783132530120482,
"launches15": 45,
"launches60": 83,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 48
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 236,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9918672222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996611342592593
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5522192151845887
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.305
Log loss0.803
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.004673778634753631,
"shareRatio": 0.8369415312247745,
"totalAfter": 47713,
"shareBefore": 0.005585441226965778,
"totalBefore": 43685,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 223,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 244
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 55% that "justice" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.56% → 0.47% (-16%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "justice" (24H). momentum contributed +0.80 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
acb6cdb2336c4ededacbc82d5a7ca6f7b1011402db83d925d5f58b8f72c25e97Previous hash
bb17fbc3035d7309e922bb630a0aa6a666b8c345318f639d8fd28b0d02f4de16