Will "market" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

13 of 2291 launches in the last hour referenced "market" (13 distinct creators, rank #74). Last 15m momentum 0.76×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.14332671675411546,
      "momentum": -0.2753683488906978,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4462038332702407
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "market",
    "rank60": 74,
    "share15": 0.004472271914132379,
    "share60": 0.0058900523560209425,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2291,
    "momentum": 0.7592923871993639,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 13,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 13
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 236,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918672222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996611342592593
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4462038332702407
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006581015656110494,
  "shareRatio": 0.8738998927792004,
  "totalAfter": 47713,
  "shareBefore": 0.007531189195375987,
  "totalBefore": 43685,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 314,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 329
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity