Ledger / Prediction #1769 · narrative · 1H

Will "justice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

122 of 2326 launches in the last hour referenced "justice" (51 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.78×.

Made2026-10-11 19:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 18:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4791874698448734,
      "momentum": -0.2426558796587076,
      "diversity": -0.3983606557377049
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.38655200846621834
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "justice",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.04130052724077329,
    "share60": 0.05264288783841856,
    "total15": 568,
    "total60": 2326,
    "momentum": 0.7845414439941178,
    "diversity": 0.4180327868852459,
    "launches15": 23,
    "launches60": 122,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 51
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 258,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971536111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971536111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.38655200846621834
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.149

Log loss0.489

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0024549918166939444,
  "shareRatio": 0.050608906139142776,
  "totalAfter": 2444,
  "shareBefore": 0.05233805233805234,
  "totalBefore": 2331,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 122
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 39% that "justice" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.23% → 0.25% (-95%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "justice" (1H). diversity contributed -0.40 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash482537cd47c80ea58660d9fa1dea91164a0250a31441bf3e5ce40e96be906f4b

Previous hashd2e3fb21ad51da49425b6c01d1c18179f9f5c24581b5e32e8d7f880591334991