Will "name" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

10 of 2326 launches in the last hour referenced "name" (7 distinct creators, rank #114). Last 15m momentum 0.97×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1039720770839918,
      "momentum": -0.026629796113361696,
      "diversity": -0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.42980232162723225
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "name",
    "rank60": 114,
    "share15": 0.004393673110720563,
    "share60": 0.0045122475290073055,
    "total15": 568,
    "total60": 2326,
    "momentum": 0.9737216503473095,
    "diversity": 0.7,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 10,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 258,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971536111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971536111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.42980232162723225
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.008592471358428805,
  "shareRatio": 1.9529847112669199,
  "totalAfter": 2444,
  "shareBefore": 0.00429000429000429,
  "totalBefore": 2331,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 21,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 10
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity