Ledger / Prediction #1776 · narrative · 6H

Will "nuts" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

19 of 2326 launches in the last hour referenced "nuts" (15 distinct creators, rank #64). Last 15m momentum 0.73×.

Made2026-10-11 19:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 18:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.200250160009851,
      "momentum": -0.30919676789837225,
      "diversity": 0.047368421052631594
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4150554985244803
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "nuts",
    "rank60": 64,
    "share15": 0.006151142355008787,
    "share60": 0.008379888268156424,
    "total15": 568,
    "total60": 2326,
    "momentum": 0.7340363210310487,
    "diversity": 0.7894736842105263,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 19,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 258,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971536111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995256018518518
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4150554985244803
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 01:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.172

Log loss0.536

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0021183116271771534,
  "shareRatio": 0.7051350250555866,
  "totalAfter": 12746,
  "shareBefore": 0.0030178556459049375,
  "totalBefore": 11929,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 27,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 36
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 42% that "nuts" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.30% → 0.21% (-30%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "nuts" (6H). momentum contributed -0.31 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf9deadc73fbc0c0b55337c0ff2f069fbf9404cfeb794a8ea386da3c7d3d8fe3e

Previous hash899b64636b964308c654eb9d9bc9387380f9793f170af40a5cd7f56238579d96