Will "saddie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

60 of 2289 launches in the last hour referenced "saddie" (27 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.67×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3727359974682,
      "momentum": -0.39846764620903835,
      "diversity": -0.36
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.36123402035645374
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "saddie",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.017736486486486486,
    "share60": 0.026419213973799125,
    "total15": 591,
    "total60": 2289,
    "momentum": 0.6713480008934555,
    "diversity": 0.45,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 60,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 277,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940922222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990153703703704
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.36123402035645374
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.0082166568066785,
  "totalAfter": 12446,
  "shareBefore": 0.004848876676903184,
  "totalBefore": 12374,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 60
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity