Ledger / Prediction #179 · token · 1H

Will $$SHEEPY still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 28m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 27 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-09 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 14:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0280739129472569
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "3TAPfnH2i7kPVXqxB82HWMi5t868GNoERXgAaXFopump",
    "name": "$SHEEPY",
    "symbol": "$SHEEPY",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 28,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 42,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3093.704444464139,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 27
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 755,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0280739129472569
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 15:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.029

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T13:38:01.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3008.158782453608,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 5551.0520504173255,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3093.704444464139,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6187.408888928278
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $$SHEEPY would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,008, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $$SHEEPY (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8f6313f9df1eb131d06891a6a81bac599bd98f6608088c3c69003422b5160802

Previous hash5342669178502637bb890591f0e10a71abbe734600ba10890a585b2e274c53cf