Will "baton" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

56 of 2439 launches in the last hour referenced "baton" (35 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 1.52×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3623870667451573,
      "momentum": 0.41775037992872255,
      "diversity": -0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5352156493669331
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "baton",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.03516295025728988,
    "share60": 0.023155737704918033,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2439,
    "momentum": 1.5185415686334038,
    "diversity": 0.625,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 56,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 35
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 301,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991038888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998506481481482
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5352156493669331
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.012576561861984484,
  "shareRatio": 2.6951057049493645,
  "totalAfter": 12245,
  "shareBefore": 0.004642884779076066,
  "totalBefore": 12923,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 154,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 60
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity