GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1807 · narrative · 6H

Will "finance" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 2439 launches in the last hour referenced "finance" (32 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 3.74×.

Made2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": 1.3203404968265307,
      "diversity": -0.08297872340425534
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.690279809704217
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "finance",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.07289879931389365,
    "share60": 0.0194672131147541,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2439,
    "momentum": 3.7446962173873786,
    "diversity": 0.6808510638297872,
    "launches15": 42,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 301,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991038888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998506481481482
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.690279809704217
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 02:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.477
Log loss1.172
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0027766435279706,
  "shareRatio": 0.5825614894659481,
  "totalAfter": 12245,
  "shareBefore": 0.004797647605045268,
  "totalBefore": 12923,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 34,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 62
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 69% that "finance" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.48% → 0.28% (-42%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "finance" (6H). momentum contributed +1.32 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc3b7b4a8d314c73a0a688a2fc34ffc44554903360b0d58fb3350688a373c0e2d
Previous hashbc2001b18496ed2ef25456103e86607d29a5353f2605bf2664b702018da2c5d3