Ledger / Prediction #1807 · narrative · 6H
Will "finance" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
47 of 2439 launches in the last hour referenced "finance" (32 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 3.74×.
Made2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3361064533913937,
"momentum": 1.3203404968265307,
"diversity": -0.08297872340425534
},
"rawProbability": 0.690279809704217
},
"features": {
"term": "finance",
"rank60": 9,
"share15": 0.07289879931389365,
"share60": 0.0194672131147541,
"total15": 582,
"total60": 2439,
"momentum": 3.7446962173873786,
"diversity": 0.6808510638297872,
"launches15": 42,
"launches60": 47,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 32
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 301,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9991038888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998506481481482
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.690279809704217
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 02:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.477
Log loss1.172
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0027766435279706,
"shareRatio": 0.5825614894659481,
"totalAfter": 12245,
"shareBefore": 0.004797647605045268,
"totalBefore": 12923,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 34,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 62
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 69% that "finance" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.48% → 0.28% (-42%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "finance" (6H). momentum contributed +1.32 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
c3b7b4a8d314c73a0a688a2fc34ffc44554903360b0d58fb3350688a373c0e2dPrevious hash
bc2001b18496ed2ef25456103e86607d29a5353f2605bf2664b702018da2c5d3