Ledger / Prediction #1808 · narrative · 6H

Will "massive" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2439 launches in the last hour referenced "massive" (4 distinct creators, rank #193). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

Made2026-10-11 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 20:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.2764840691654549,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2127866534051048
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "massive",
    "rank60": 193,
    "share15": 0.0008576329331046312,
    "share60": 0.0030737704918032786,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2439,
    "momentum": 0.27901658090337333,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 301,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991038888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998506481481482
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2127866534051048
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.045

Log loss0.239

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006533278889342589,
  "shareRatio": 0.39869345092275027,
  "totalAfter": 12245,
  "shareBefore": 0.0017023910856612241,
  "totalBefore": 12923,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 22
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 21% that "massive" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.07% (-62%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "massive" (6H). momentum contributed -1.28 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashae9df34107a94a51d4b6664f6118e7edbabf435f808a84651c265f91ab8be201

Previous hashc3b7b4a8d314c73a0a688a2fc34ffc44554903360b0d58fb3350688a373c0e2d