Ledger / Prediction #181 · narrative · 1H
Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
99 of 2223 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (71 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.15×.
Made2026-10-09 14:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 15:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 14:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4478522906550734,
"momentum": 0.14256959171260702,
"diversity": -0.039393939393939446
},
"rawProbability": 0.5624294964945334
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.051594746716697934,
"share60": 0.044739208633093525,
"total15": 532,
"total60": 2223,
"momentum": 1.1532333336476002,
"diversity": 0.7171717171717171,
"launches15": 27,
"launches60": 99,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 71
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 341,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9968622222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968622222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5624294964945334
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-09 15:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.191
Log loss0.576
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0892554991539763,
"shareRatio": 2.0042920734751983,
"totalAfter": 2364,
"shareBefore": 0.04441453566621804,
"totalBefore": 2229,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 211,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 99
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 56% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.44% → 8.93% (+101%). CORRECT.
— volume pointed the right way on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.45 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a8ab39f74c478d8ab6fdeabbf11cff167df36210204de75730e4e160975c9238Previous hash
1000fad15e2735f2c0acf6d9b84160b1fd836433055da3204eaf12f4bb60036d