Will "finance" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
47 of 2439 launches in the last hour referenced "finance" (32 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 3.74×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3361064533913937,
"momentum": 1.3203404968265307,
"diversity": -0.08297872340425534
},
"rawProbability": 0.6193367717034131
},
"features": {
"term": "finance",
"rank60": 9,
"share15": 0.07289879931389365,
"share60": 0.0194672131147541,
"total15": 582,
"total60": 2439,
"momentum": 3.7446962173873786,
"diversity": 0.6808510638297872,
"launches15": 42,
"launches60": 47,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 32
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 301,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9991038888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999962662037037
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6193367717034131
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.005532846112556258,
"shareRatio": 2.3684405463699862,
"totalAfter": 48438,
"shareBefore": 0.0023289061058845233,
"totalBefore": 43368,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 268,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 101
}Predicted 62% that "finance" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.55% (+138%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "finance" (24H). momentum contributed +1.32 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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