Ledger / Prediction #1812 · narrative · 24H

Will "earn" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2439 launches in the last hour referenced "earn" (8 distinct creators, rank #160). Last 15m momentum 1.23×.

Made2026-10-11 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 20:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": 0.20779070031463948,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49728643222978597
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "earn",
    "rank60": 160,
    "share15": 0.004288164665523156,
    "share60": 0.0034836065573770492,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2439,
    "momentum": 1.2309555039854707,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 301,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991038888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999962662037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49728643222978597
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.247

Log loss0.688

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003571576035344151,
  "shareRatio": 0.8374132046702917,
  "totalAfter": 48438,
  "shareBefore": 0.004265818114738978,
  "totalBefore": 43368,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 173,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 185
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "earn" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.43% → 0.36% (-16%). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on "earn" (24H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3165b612895601c53cb3424309e3f99da61f55de34582005550d0888255c85f9

Previous hash5bce784b90de0446061887e48797697b17cb7ec4fcd0ef9182cfdad46f3d878a