Ledger / Prediction #1824 · narrative · 6H
Will "nigr" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
6 of 2512 launches in the last hour referenced "nigr" (6 distinct creators, rank #219). Last 15m momentum 2.29×.
Made2026-10-11 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 02:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 20:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.027348233519093188,
"momentum": 0.8283773117312705,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.6245738699905113
},
"features": {
"term": "nigr",
"rank60": 219,
"share15": 0.005922165820642978,
"share60": 0.002586549940310386,
"total15": 590,
"total60": 2512,
"momentum": 2.2896004165039696,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 6,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 267,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9960355555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993392592592593
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6245738699905113
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 02:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.390
Log loss0.980
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0018368539701093763,
"shareRatio": 0.7093109668194507,
"totalAfter": 11977,
"shareBefore": 0.0026111608475082064,
"totalBefore": 13404,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 22,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 35
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 62% that "nigr" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.26% → 0.18% (-30%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "nigr" (6H). momentum contributed +0.83 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
38dfb0195e64baada4c5378d1a987b8e20883c86f4d46c2ccfbcfc7c05033abdPrevious hash
3f36b63524fa4e7ea09ac5e84fd8eba3b18d6ff9200dd860a6134c1dd1421e0f