Will "live" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

187 of 2512 launches in the last hour referenced "live" (18 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.73×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5432506056630729,
      "momentum": 0.5509284155595187,
      "diversity": -0.7844919786096257
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.46377446521964355
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "live",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.12944162436548223,
    "share60": 0.07461201750895344,
    "total15": 590,
    "total60": 2512,
    "momentum": 1.7348629441624366,
    "diversity": 0.0962566844919786,
    "launches15": 76,
    "launches60": 187,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 267,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960355555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998348148148148
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.46377446521964355
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.009875834938327254,
  "shareRatio": 0.7421193036840775,
  "totalAfter": 48806,
  "shareBefore": 0.01330987708617856,
  "totalBefore": 43201,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 482,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 575
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity