Will "jean" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

54 of 2223 launches in the last hour referenced "jean" (4 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.96×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35693192011952607,
      "momentum": -0.04393082615631452,
      "diversity": -0.8111111111111111
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3104299496205804
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "jean",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.02345215759849906,
    "share60": 0.024505395683453238,
    "total15": 532,
    "total60": 2223,
    "momentum": 0.9570201559460901,
    "diversity": 0.07407407407407407,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 54,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 341,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968622222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968622222222222
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3104299496205804
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0038071065989847717,
  "shareRatio": 0.1643617743468394,
  "totalAfter": 2364,
  "shareBefore": 0.024226110363391656,
  "totalBefore": 2229,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity