Ledger / Prediction #1838 · narrative · 6H

Will "stream" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

54 of 2325 launches in the last hour referenced "stream" (4 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.24×.

Made2026-10-11 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35693192011952607,
      "momentum": -1.4264724928344001,
      "diversity": -0.8111111111111111
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1656941864993843
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "stream",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.005627009646302251,
    "share60": 0.02343078245915735,
    "total15": 621,
    "total60": 2325,
    "momentum": 0.24015457683117497,
    "diversity": 0.07407407407407407,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 54,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 264,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929830555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988305092592593
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1656941864993843
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.027

Log loss0.181

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0014505119453924915,
  "shareRatio": 0.21704863296877627,
  "totalAfter": 11720,
  "shareBefore": 0.006842183549010858,
  "totalBefore": 13446,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 17,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 92
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "stream" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.68% → 0.15% (-79%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "stream" (6H). momentum contributed -1.43 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash422f188f360b0f1ea850d5247e96d40518fb3db42f3fc57eae9da8f71c545886

Previous hash373f58d5568f2d498493a897134e68fc077fb961c903760d485e3f65d8330611