Ledger / Prediction #1840 · narrative · 6H
Will "layer" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
6 of 2325 launches in the last hour referenced "layer" (6 distinct creators, rank #211). Last 15m momentum 1.44×.
Made2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 20:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.027348233519093188,
"momentum": 0.36345379531199384,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5457619322373767
},
"features": {
"term": "layer",
"rank60": 211,
"share15": 0.0040192926045016075,
"share60": 0.0027944969905417025,
"total15": 621,
"total60": 2325,
"momentum": 1.4382883997031906,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 6,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 264,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9929830555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988305092592593
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5457619322373767
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 03:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.298
Log loss0.789
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.001621160409556314,
"shareRatio": 0.7849653568269279,
"totalAfter": 11720,
"shareBefore": 0.0020824036888293916,
"totalBefore": 13446,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 19,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 28
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 55% that "layer" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.21% → 0.16% (-22%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "layer" (6H). momentum contributed +0.36 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
078491255cad65d8e0488db68d7587e715a3c61159e408281712f54b5b1bea29Previous hash
8edeb966edcbde22407f5c9048b45db6a93a30b3e346e22470d8f94568a143c8