Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 2173 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (38 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.72×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": 0.5440244027341354,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6233455069977014
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.03051181102362205,
    "share60": 0.017709291628334865,
    "total15": 507,
    "total60": 2173,
    "momentum": 1.7229266796195932,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 38
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 305,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979941666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996656944444444
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6233455069977014
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.011792660388981782,
  "shareRatio": 0.8162663578480502,
  "totalAfter": 11363,
  "shareBefore": 0.014463877204634344,
  "totalBefore": 13551,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 134,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 196
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity