Will "playground" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

10 of 2173 launches in the last hour referenced "playground" (10 distinct creators, rank #104). Last 15m momentum 0.20×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1039720770839918,
      "momentum": -1.5906798176207502,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2440327867415302
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "playground",
    "rank60": 104,
    "share15": 0.000984251968503937,
    "share60": 0.004829806807727691,
    "total15": 507,
    "total60": 2173,
    "momentum": 0.20378702662167228,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 10,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 305,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979941666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996656944444444
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2440327867415302
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005280295696559007,
  "shareRatio": 0.7382377097266222,
  "totalAfter": 11363,
  "shareBefore": 0.0007379529186037931,
  "totalBefore": 13551,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 10
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity