Ledger / Prediction #1857 · narrative · 24H
Will "tech" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
32 of 2173 launches in the last hour referenced "tech" (32 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 1.25×.
Made2026-10-11 21:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 21:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27844469855484394,
"momentum": 0.2238943293734764,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5252708276871977
},
"features": {
"term": "tech",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.018700787401574805,
"share60": 0.014949402023919043,
"total15": 507,
"total60": 2173,
"momentum": 1.2509388249545732,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 9,
"launches60": 32,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 32
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 305,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9979941666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999164236111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5252708276871977
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 21:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.225
Log loss0.644
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.005327229638031963,
"shareRatio": 1.7047848993978403,
"totalAfter": 49369,
"shareBefore": 0.0031191806331471138,
"totalBefore": 42960,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 263,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 134
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 53% that "tech" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.53% (+71%). CORRECT.
— diversity pointed the right way on "tech" (24H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
6200d6dff22a8d77b3d24a2e93260fffbbea1ecb10c3a9c83b928e6ff0b2188cPrevious hash
a3cf4237e58ce38f11af21e3856237f210bdf3f577c29793ff15c053ae72df6b