GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1857 · narrative · 24H

Will "tech" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

32 of 2173 launches in the last hour referenced "tech" (32 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 1.25×.

Made2026-10-11 21:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 21:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27844469855484394,
      "momentum": 0.2238943293734764,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5252708276871977
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tech",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.018700787401574805,
    "share60": 0.014949402023919043,
    "total15": 507,
    "total60": 2173,
    "momentum": 1.2509388249545732,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 32,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 305,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979941666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999164236111111
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5252708276871977
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 21:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.225
Log loss0.644
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.005327229638031963,
  "shareRatio": 1.7047848993978403,
  "totalAfter": 49369,
  "shareBefore": 0.0031191806331471138,
  "totalBefore": 42960,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 263,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 134
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "tech" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.53% (+71%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "tech" (24H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6200d6dff22a8d77b3d24a2e93260fffbbea1ecb10c3a9c83b928e6ff0b2188c
Previous hasha3cf4237e58ce38f11af21e3856237f210bdf3f577c29793ff15c053ae72df6b