Will "self" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 2173 launches in the last hour referenced "self" (19 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": -2.68929210628886,
      "diversity": -0.16451612903225804
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16937504460862504
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "self",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.000984251968503937,
    "share60": 0.014489420423183073,
    "total15": 507,
    "total60": 2173,
    "momentum": 0.06792900887389076,
    "diversity": 0.6129032258064516,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 305,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979941666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999164236111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16937504460862504
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009722700480058336,
  "shareRatio": 0.5308671652761907,
  "totalAfter": 49369,
  "shareBefore": 0.0018389199255121043,
  "totalBefore": 42960,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 48,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 79
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity