Ledger / Prediction #1863 · token · 1H

Will $hmm still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 2% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 20m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 5 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-11 21:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 21:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.02310254327777607
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "J9qyJw4mgPNNY4tVLJi2kygNZjkqL118gL49N27Npump",
    "name": "interdasting",
    "symbol": "hmm",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 20,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3132.6952240946607,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 5
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 774,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.02310254327777607
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 22:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.023

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:22.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3095.899347726682,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3132.6952240946607,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3132.6952240946607,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6265.390448189321
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 2% that $hmm would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,096, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $hmm (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash17df1fd03541a8fb4cdd8b7c1d591248bca92d8158c4dd1eb9cfce2a5fa2f04e

Previous hash9e905a68930cc09ab73502a34e7a9e755c7231cd23285940d587878b6b76816c