Ledger / Prediction #1868 · narrative · 1H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 47% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
23 of 2257 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (17 distinct creators, rank #25). Last 15m momentum 0.95×.
Made2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 21:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.22890844552425738,
"momentum": -0.054376546583391756,
"diversity": -0.013043478260869623
},
"rawProbability": 0.4654273618273471
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 25,
"share15": 0.00985663082437276,
"share60": 0.010407440212577503,
"total15": 557,
"total60": 2257,
"momentum": 0.9470754213376038,
"diversity": 0.7391304347826086,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 23,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 17
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 310,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9946433333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9946433333333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4654273618273471
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 23:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.286
Log loss0.765
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.012172284644194757,
"shareRatio": 1.1519868593202371,
"totalAfter": 2136,
"shareBefore": 0.01054945054945055,
"totalBefore": 2275,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 26,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 24
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 47% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.05% → 1.22% (+15%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed -0.05 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
0f6fba817a9e510d1051286b5b0639c45e525746df090ca7fdcef55972585f7aPrevious hash
2a13ed35464855c0f9c37107c4e2eff00d4aa340c61a63b80bdc5aa48f70c366