Ledger / Prediction #1869 · narrative · 6H

Will "stututu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

92 of 2257 launches in the last hour referenced "stututu" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.12×.

Made2026-10-11 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.436852599692241,
      "momentum": 0.10934558997429732,
      "diversity": -0.8608695652173912
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.37278910950223454
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "stututu",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.0456989247311828,
    "share60": 0.040965456155890166,
    "total15": 557,
    "total60": 2257,
    "momentum": 1.1155478058703865,
    "diversity": 0.03260869565217391,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 92,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 310,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946433333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991072222222223
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.37278910950223454
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.139

Log loss0.466

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.026388378080176536,
  "shareRatio": 0.7912319203262358,
  "totalAfter": 10876,
  "shareBefore": 0.03337210993165624,
  "totalBefore": 13754,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 287,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 459
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 37% that "stututu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 3.34% → 2.64% (-21%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "stututu" (6H). diversity contributed -0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashaabd6c1b38aeb5cfa28456da5169be8b4e9989756046b5e0d29253cb8cf442f7

Previous hash0f6fba817a9e510d1051286b5b0639c45e525746df090ca7fdcef55972585f7a